Is The Housing Market Starting To Crash?

Introduction:

The state of the housing market is a topic that always garners significant attention and speculation. As of September 24, 2021, there has been some concern about a potential crash in the housing market. However, by examining key indicators, such as showings, offers received by sellers, and inventory levels, we can gain a clearer understanding of the market's current state. In this blog post, we will analyze these factors and determine whether the housing market is truly heading towards a crash or if there are more nuanced dynamics at play.

Showings: A Drop in Activity, but Not Cause for Alarm Over the past few months, there has been a noticeable decline in the number of showings, causing some unease among market observers. However, it's essential to put this decline into perspective. Comparing the current showings data to July 2019, we find that the numbers are still significantly higher. This suggests that the market remains active, even if there has been a recent softening.

Offers Received: Sellers Still in a Favorable Position One of the key indicators of a strong housing market is the number of offers sellers receive. Despite the drop in showings, sellers are still receiving an average of 4.5 offers. This figure indicates that there is continued demand from buyers, albeit at a potentially slightly slower pace. Sellers can take some solace in the fact that the market remains competitive for their properties.

Inventory Levels: Supply and Demand Dynamics A crucial factor in assessing the housing market's stability is the months' supply of inventory. A supply of less than 3 months typically indicates a seller's market, while a higher supply may suggest a buyer's market. Currently, the months' supply of inventory remains under 3, indicating that demand is still outpacing supply. This signifies that the housing market is relatively healthy, despite any recent softening.

Crash vs. Softening: Understanding the Difference While the housing market may be experiencing some softening, it is crucial to differentiate between a softening market and an outright crash. Softening implies a gradual adjustment and moderation in the market, which is a natural part of the economic cycle. A crash, on the other hand, suggests a sudden and severe decline in prices and activity. Based on the current data, there is no concrete evidence to support the notion of a market crash.

Conclusion: A Market in Transition, Not in Crisis In conclusion, the recent data suggests that the housing market is undergoing a period of softening rather than heading towards a crash. Although there has been a drop in showings and a slight adjustment in the pace of activity, sellers are still receiving multiple offers, and the months' supply of inventory remains relatively low. These factors indicate that the market remains favorable, albeit with some signs of moderation. It is important for market participants and observers to stay informed and evaluate the data objectively to avoid unwarranted panic or exaggerated expectations.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this blog post is based on available data as of September 24, 2021. The housing market is subject to fluctuations, and future trends may vary. It is advisable to consult with real estate professionals or financial advisors for personalized guidance based on current market conditions.