March 2023 Central Virginia Housing Market Update


Hey Central Virginia, are you wondering who or what you believe you should trust when it comes to the housing market? With conflicting headlines and sensational news stories circulating, it can be challenging to discern the true state of affairs. In this March 2023 Housing Market Update, we aim to separate fact from fiction and provide you with a clearer picture of the local housing market.

Mixed Signals and Conflicting Reports:

If you've recently done a Google search or tuned in to the news, you've likely encountered a range of opinions about the housing market. Forbes asks, "Are home prices finally becoming affordable?" while CNBC warns about the market being in "increasingly big trouble." Fox Business goes even further, suggesting that the US real estate market is in "big trouble." It's essential to consider the credibility and context of these reports before forming conclusions.

National Data vs. Local Reality:

Amidst the noise, it's crucial to examine the more factual "national" data. According to reports from KCM Graphics and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), there is limited weak buyer demand nationally, with a months' supply of inventory (MSI) between 2-3. However, local data reveals a different story specific to Central Virginia.

Central Virginia's Unique Position:

Contrary to the national narrative, Central Virginia's housing market boasts some noteworthy statistics. Zillow ranks it as the second-highest market in the country based on its home value index. The median sales price has seen a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, demonstrating sustained growth. Additionally, properties spend a mere 8 days on the market, reflecting a high demand and fast-paced market conditions. With an MSI of 0.6, the region faces a significant shortage of available homes, contributing to the current state of affairs.

Understanding the Factors:

To comprehend why Central Virginia's housing market stands apart, it's essential to consider a few key factors. First, the region remains more affordable compared to its feeder markets, such as Northern Virginia and the Tri-State Area. This affordability attracts buyers seeking better value for their money. Furthermore, the nationwide housing shortage continues to impact Central Virginia. New construction is lagging behind demand, exacerbating the scarcity of available properties. Moreover, many homeowners in the area are locked into historically low-interest rates, making it less appealing for them to sell and move.

Implications for Sellers and Buyers:

For sellers, it's crucial to recognize that preparing a home for sale often takes longer than anticipated. In a competitive market, it's essential to present a premium product to attract potential buyers. As for buyers, it's important to understand that favorable deals and discounts, akin to Black Friday sales, are not commonplace in the current market. The market is becoming increasingly competitive, making it crucial to act swiftly and consider a pre-inspection to expedite the buying process.


While national reports may paint a bleak picture of the housing market, Central Virginia offers a unique and dynamic environment. With its high ranking in Zillow's home value index, steady price growth, and remarkably short time on the market, Central Virginia defies the national trends. However, the region faces challenges due to a shortage of available homes and homeowners locked into low-interest rates. By understanding these factors, sellers and buyers can navigate the market more effectively and make informed decisions.

So, if you find yourself bombarded with conflicting headlines and uncertain about the housing market, take a closer look at the local data and consider the specific dynamics of Central Virginia. By doing so, you'll be better equipped to navigate this vibrant and evolving housing market.


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