Why I'm Confident The Housing Market Won't Crash In 2024

Charting Confidence: Richmond, VA Real Estate Market's Resilience in 2024

Introduction: Welcome back to Frequently Asked Friday, where we tackle the pressing questions on real estate. In today's video, we delve into the confidence of a real estate agent who firmly believes that Richmond, Virginia's real estate market won't face a crash in 2024. Let's break down the facts, figures, and forecasts to understand the reasoning behind this optimism.

Current Market Overview 

  • As of November 2023, Richmond experienced a staggering 8.7% year-over-year appreciation, surpassing national predictions.
  • The median days on market were merely 7 days, emphasizing the high demand, and homes were closing at 100% of the asking price in November 20

2024 Projections 

  • Six out of eight major forecasting bodies predict nominal appreciation in 2024.
  • Even the most pessimistic forecasts, from Zillow and realor.com, suggest minimal depreciation, with Zillow predicting 2% and realor.com 1.7%.
  • The agent emphasizes that even a slight depreciation doesn't necessarily equate to a market crash.

Macro and Microeconomic Factors

  • Macro Factor: Underbuilt New Construction 
    • The national housing market faces a 14-year trend of underbuilding new construction homes, leading to a supply-demand imbalance.
  • Micro Factor: Feeder Markets
    • Richmond's biggest feeder markets, Northern Virginia and the tri-state area (New York, New Jersey, Connecticut), are characterized by higher real estate prices.
    • The influx of residents from these areas is likely to continue, pushing Richmond's prices higher due to its affordability compared to their home regions.

Conclusion: In conclusion, the real estate agent's confidence is rooted in both macro and microeconomic factors. The underbuilt new construction at a national level and the consistent migration from higher-priced regions to Richmond contribute to a positive outlook for the local market. While predictions vary, the agent remains optimistic that the market's fundamentals will prevent a crash in 2024.

Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments or reach out with any questions. Stay tuned for more insights on Frequently Asked Friday, and thank you for joining us today!


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